Simulation Details

  • 2 Replies
Simulation Details
« on: February 21, 2019, 03:35:01 PM »
I’m new here and loving the app so far.

One question I have is what exactly does the run simulation do?  Does it run through a complete scenario (randomly picking cards and summing the time until unlocked) 100 times? 

It is only accurate if cumulative draws is allowed, right?

I have done a few sample locks that show roughly: worst=120 days, ave=80 days, and best=60 days in the simulation.  I create the lock, look at the cards, go create a new lock with the exact amount of cards i was given and the simulation run for that is almost always longer than the 120 day worse.  Sometimes significantly longer (240 days). 

I understand that the worse scenarion in 100 runs is not the absolute maximum but it doesnt seem correct that when I do the test above, I am almost always getting times longer than the worse from the simulation.

Any ideas what’s going on or what I’m not understanding?

Re: Simulation Details
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2019, 04:46:15 PM »

The simulation runs through 100 test runs of the lock with those cards. You have to understand that if you mix the deck with lots of different random cards then the cards picked before the simulation finds all of the green cards is going to be different in each of those 100 simulations, and one set of 100 simulations may be completely different from another set of 100 simulations. The simulation is the equivalent of you running the lock and picking a card every hour or day etc. Depending on the cards included in the deck, each time you do that same lock you'll get a different outcome. Sometimes you'll be really lucky and find the green cards early. Other times you'll hit every double up, reset, and freeze card first etc.

The simulation runs as if you were picking every hour or day and weren't missing any, but yes the simulation is much closer to a cumulative lock because it doesn't matter if you sleep as you'll get the 8 or 9 chances to go through when you wake up. If it's a non-cumulative lock then the times may be longer than shown in the simulation, depending on how many goes you miss because you were busy or forget.

If you run a simulation with just red cards and green cards you may notice that the simulation is probably quite similar for each 100 test runs. It differs greatly when you throw in double ups and resets.

It is the best way of getting a feel for the length of the lock and you can run the simulation as many times as you want until you're happy/confident it's not going to run longer than hoped. In a much earlier version of the app I used to show the min and max based on best and worst case scenarios but the formula can get quite complicated and the results are more unrealistic and scarier. Worst case scenarios normally include finding all of the reset cards first, and then all of the double ups so that you have no chance of resetting the count but no one finds 20 resets back to back, and then 20 double ups back to back. Although due to the cap in place where you can't have more than 399 reds and 995 yellows it's not a bad idea to get all of the double ups back to back if you have a chance of resetting the deck.

It's complicated and scary giving true best and worst case scenarios. The simulation is the best known method for getting an idea for the lock length
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Re: Simulation Details
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2019, 05:51:50 PM »
That is what I figured.  It just seems weird that 3 times in a row I ended up with a result that is very likely to be way longer than the simulated worse.

Guess I’m just real unlucky!

Thanks for the reply.  Love the app!